On Wed, 27 Jan 2010 10:36:34 +0100, "Michele"
wrote:
>> What if say Japan isn't bogged down in China and instead figures out
>> armor tactics and invades the SU more succesfully?
>
>The Japanese armored offensive bogs down in Siberian winters and mud-logged
>summers somewhere between Vladivostok and Baikal. They have gained some oil
>in Sakhalin and plenty of fishing seas. The oil is the same that they were
>buying at favorable terms from the Soviets in OTL, so it's not that much of
>an improvement.
>Logistics still prevents them from reaching any meaningful objective beyond
>the middle of nowhere in Siberia.
Certainly nowhere near 70 degrees east longitude which was the
German-Japanese fantasy boundary.
Besides Sakhalin doesn't have nearly enough oil to fuel the Japanese
fleet much less both fleet and army. Surely the Japanese knew that
long before Pearl Harbor? (e.g. would they have even studied an attack
on Pearl Harbor had they thought the Russians under even the most
favorable circumstances been able to supply enough oil for Japanese
needs?)
>The Soviets abandon Vladivostok and concentrate on defending the real
>heartland, against Germany.
>The British supply the Soviets.
>The Japanese, being now bogged down in Siberia, and still as thirsty of
>petrol as ever, still need to double-or-nothing somewhere else. Wherever
>they turn to, they are going to irk either the USA, or the British (or
>both).
>
>There is a reason if the go-South Navy's proposal won over the other.
Yup - best case scenario for the Japanese is that they drive west
along the Trans-Siberian railway until they run out of gas and hope
the Germans can force a Russian surrender.
That's one helluva strategy!
(Of course their worst case scenario was a scenario where not only did
they lose as per OTL but where the Americans really meant it when they
said 'unconditional surrender'. I don't think anyone in 1945 really
considered the 8 Dec 1941 Halsey scenario - "when the United States is
finished the Japanese language will only be spoken in hell")
Question: had the Japanese won at Kohima-Imphal could they have moved
far enough into India to create an anti-British revolt? |
