On Wed, 3 Mar 2010 07:58:14 -0800 (PST), Chris
wrote:
>On Mar 3, 12:01 am, Dennis wrote:
>
>> Suppose you do a sneak attack on the British but not the Americans?
>> Further suppose that you set up bases in Indochina so you can avoid the
>> Phillippines. What then?
>
>The problem isn't that the Japanese need bases in the Philippines. The
>problem is that US forces, operating out of bases in the Philippines
>can completely cut the sea lines of communication (SLOC) between Japan
>(where the refinery's are) and the Dutch East Indies (where the oil
>is). Without protection for those SLOC's, there is really no point in
>having the Dutch East Indies: the only value they represent for Japan
>is the value of that tasty, tasty, refined oil, necessary to run all
>the tanks, trucks, ships, and aircraft supporting the invasion of
>China.
>
>So, as I said before, it becomes a gamble for the Japanese: they can
>either ignore the US and Britain, and hope that no war starts, or they
>can start the fight with a big surprise and get the best advantage
>they can militarily. If they try and ignore the US and Britain and war
>does happen anyway, then Japan loses quickly and painfully; instead of
>the war starting with a roughly even IJN and USN, and the Japanese
>having the advantage of surprise and initiative, the USN would be
>vastly larger by 1943 (~twice the size of IJN forces), have improved
>in quality as well, and can start the war with initiative.
That essentially means their best bet is to try to seduce the Dutch.
How that is accomplished is left as an exercise for the reader :) |
