Re: A tennis accident, July 13, 1985 (whatif?)

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Re: A tennis accident, July 13, 1985

Posted on: Injection- Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:46:35 +0000 (UTC)

"David Tenner" wrote in message
news:P8CdnV4xE77hkgnWnZ2dnUVZ_rqdnZ2d@supernews.com...
> OK, let our POD be that Bush was hurt much more seriously than in OTL:
>
> (1) The most extreme situation: The head injury kills Bush almost
> instantly. Reagan on awakening and learning of what happened to Bush,
> himself dies of a sudden heart attack. Less than a year after the
> overwhelming GOP victory in the 1984 presidential race, a Democrat,
> Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill, becomes President...
>

That could be very interesting, has anyone ever done a Tip O'Neill
Presidency timeline?

> (2) The head injury kills Bush, but Reagan, on awakening and being told of
> it, does not have a heart attack. Who does Reagan appoint as the new
> Vice-President (Bob Dole? Jack Kemp? Howard Baker? James Baker?) and
> how likely is whoever he appoints to become the GOP presidential nominee
> in 1988?
>

Best choice IMO would be John Lehman, but I think he is an unlikely
candidate. It would probably be someone more like Bill Bennett. Robert
Bork would be an interesting choice. For a really game changing choice why
not Elizabeth Dole? Pollitically savy, very well connected, kills the whole
Republicans do not like powerful women argument DOA.

If he picks any Republican White Male then they are almost garunteed the
nomination in 1988 unless they do something horrible and get caught.

If he pick Elizabeth Dole or some other unexpected non white or non male
then I would give that candidate a 65% chance of being the nominee in 1988
presuming they run for the office.

> (3) Bush is put in a coma which shows no sign of ending. The Twenty Fifth
> Amendment provides a method for determining when a *President* is
> disabled; it provides no such method for determining *vice-presidential*
> disability. See the discussion by Akhil Reed Amar and Vikram ...mar
> at http://hnn.us/articles/902.html :
>
> "Even the Twenty-fifth Amendment, however, leaves some vital issues
> unaddressed. For example, it provides no satisfactory mechanism for
> determining *Vice-Presidential* disability. Given the health problems that
> many of America's Vice Presidents have historically faced-indeed, given
> the troubled medical history of Cheney himself--this is a serious
> omission.
>
> "Compounding the problem, if the Vice President ever were to be disabled
> (or if the Vice Presidency were at any point vacant) the Twenty-Fifth
> Amendment's elaborate machinery for determining Presidential disability
> will seize up; much of the key decision-making under this Amendment pivots
> on determinations that must be personally made by the Vice President...."
>
> So let's say that distress over Bush's continuing failure to improve leads
> to a severe deterioration of Reagan's own health, but he is unwilling or
> unable to resign--and there is no Vice President capable of initiating the
> 25th Amendment process... ("Whenever the Vice President and a majority of
> either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such
> other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro
> tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives
> their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the
> powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately
> assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President..."
> http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv )
>

I don't think Congress would let the nation just drift, in the scenario you
provide they would find a way to remove Bush as VP and encourage the new VP
to assume the powers of the office of President.

> (4) Bush is in a coma, but Reagan's health is fine. Reagan can't replace
> Bush, since the office of Vice President is not vacant. How does the 1988
> GOP presidential race play out without a Vice President as a candidate?
> Incidentally, does the fact that a person of the opposite party of the
> President's is next in the line of presidential succession after the
> comatose Bush lead Congress to rethink the Presidential Succesion Act of
> 1947?...
>
> Thoughts?
>

Several VP's have died in office without being replaced until the next
election cycle, I don't think the opposite party in line of succession will
have any impact at all. As for how the race plays out, pretty much like the
race in 2008 played out when Cheyney declined to run for President. The
Primaries will sort out in favor of the most senior acceptable to the
establishment candidate, probably Bob Dole.

--
~Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to
look out for himself honestly.
It is when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying
attention. ~

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