On Mar 9, 4:36=A0am, "Michele" wrote:
> > does any of this affect the Allied conquest of
> > Northern and Central Italy at all? Does it mean
> > a shorter or longer WW2 in Italy or is there no
> > effect?
>
> It is barely possible that the final Allied attempt to push through in th=
e
> fall of 1944 reaches the plains before the bad weather mires them. Not so
> much because the RSI army is smaller, but rather because Northern Italy i=
s
> much more unstable and untenable; all the anti-partisan duties that the R=
SI
> forces performed have to be carried out with a much smaller RSI army and/=
or
> with greater efforts by the Germans and the Cossacks. Maybe the effects a=
re
> cumulative and snowball.
How many men did the RSI have under arms?
ISTM that without Mussolini, the RSI military
would be down 25%-50%. The Germans would have
to replace the missing troops with their own
men.
Also - the situation is less stable and demands
on the Germans are greater, _and_ Hitler's
pledge to stand by Mussolini has been voided
by his death. Hitler of course hates withdrawal,
but ISTM possible that he would write off Italy;
not in late 1943, but perhaps in the fall of 1944.
> If the Allies reach the plains before the bad weather in 1944, they will
> still be stopped by the Po river...
I don't think so. The Rhine didn't stop the
Allies for very long. They reached the Rhine
on March 4, and crossed on March 23 (not
counting the Remagen bridgehead, which was
luck).
> but they will start with much more headway in the
> spring of 1945. Maybe the war _in Italy_ is shorter by a
> couple of months, no more. Effects in Germany? Little to none.
If the war in Italy ends in late 1944 (with the
Germans defending the crest of the Alps)...
It frees up whatever troops were watching
the French-Italian border, and much of those
in Italy. The Germans have already evacuated
Greece, the Partisans have taken Belgrade.
I have no sources whatever for what was
going on in northern Yugoslavia from Sept '44
to V-E Day; except that most of the area was
still in German hands on V-E Day.
If the Allies have force to spare, Churchill
would probably demand a push into Slovenia
or Istria - maybe landings in Dalmatia.
This could have consequences for the postwar
settlement in Yugoslavia. Obviously the western
Allies neither would or could restore the
Yugoslav monarchy as they did in Greece; but
an Allied presence might cause Tito to be
more moderate in his post-war dealings, and
perhaps aggravate his differences with Stalin,
leading to an earlier and more severe breach
later on. |
