On Mar 10, 12:50=A0am, THG wrote:
> On Mon, 8 Mar 2010 19:52:39 -0800 (PST), Alfred Montestruc
>
>
>
> wrote:
> >> In fact, one of the reasons why Hitler was able to do France in 1940
> >> was because of the *stockpiles* he'd captured in Poland and acquired
> >> in Czechoslovakia being enough, along with the small amounts produced
> >> by both those countries, to fuel the invasion ... or so I have read
> >> over the years in a couple of places.
>
> >> Dunno for sure that the last bit is true (or not!), but it seems
> >> reasonable.
>
> >My conjecture was that with the collapse of the USSR Germany can sell
> >oil from the Caspian sea region via the trans-siberian railroad, and
> >more important can allow japan to pick up the far eastern oilfields in
> >Siberia and especially on Sakhalin Island and other oilfields near the
> >coast.
>
> >All of this was hinged on the proposition that the USSR collapses in
> >late '41 early '42.
>
> Meaning essentially that Hitler seizes the Trans-Siberian essentially
> intact.
>
> Even if the Soviet government orders an intact handover as part of the
> surrender do you seriously think partisans are going to obey that
> order?
You have no idea how ready people were to see anybody but the
communists in power. You are aware that some partisans early in the
war fought FOR the GERMANS?
Had the Germans been able to keep up the momentum the first year and
cause the Red Army to break in winter 41/42, then yes indeed they
would be able to take and hold it from the west and the Japanese take
and hold it from he east.
Only after Hitler showed his ugly side did the support for the
communists winning start to rise.
>
> Uh - I dunno...besides that would require Soviet rolling stock since
> German and Russian trains used different sized rails.
>
> Best case for the Axis is 12-18 months before significant oil supplies
> move west (or east) even if there is no partisan resistance which I
> think makes Sealion brilliantly attainable by comparison.
Wrong. Once the USSR folds both Germany and Japan can relax a lot,
the time pressure is off. FYI without Japan's stupidity in attacking
the USA, and Hitler's further stupidity in declaring war on the USA,
the US will not get involved directly, especially if the USSR folds.
W/o direct US involvement, and the USSR in the dustbin of history
(early) the British (and commonwealth) are just out of luck, and
cannot win. They will come to terms with Germany & Japan.
For Japan to win, she must not attack the USA.
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