Wylie wrote:
> forgive me if this has been done to death, but couldn't really find
> much on this.
>
> Hitler decides that invading Norway can wait. Britain pulls off their
> invasion/occupation of Narvik unopposed. Norwegians grumble, but
> don't raise arms.
The Allies decided against invading Norway. They decided to lay
mines in Norwegian waters, with the intent of provoking a German
reaction, and _then_ moving in.
So if WESERUBUNG is cancelled, what does Germany do when
the mines are laid? Germany does not _have_ to act immediately;
the Baltic is open for shipments of ore from Kiruna.
After the fall of France, Germany no longer requires Swedish ore,
as they have the Briey fields in Lorraine.
> Some grumbling oversees in the USA as Britain occupied a neutral
> country. USA does not take action, but it gives a minor boost to the
> isolationist faction.
I would say a major boost.
> Since there is no Norway debacle to prompt a no-confidence vote,
> Chamberlain is still in power during the Battle of France.
That's a good point. There are other factors.
> He is unable to spin the Dunkirk evacuation as a miracle
The German navy is _much_ stronger, not having been
mostly sunk or crippled in Norway. Is it possible that
German ships intervene, disrupting or even preventing
the evacuation?
(Norway effects on the KM:
BC SCHARNHORST - torpedoed by HMS ACASTA
BC GNEISENAU - torpedoed by HM Submarine CLYDE
Pocket battleship LUTZOW - torpedoed by HM Submarine CLYDE
CA BLUCHER - sunk by Norwegian coastal battery
CA ADMIRAL HIPPER - rammed by DD GLOWWORM
CL KARLSRUHE - torpedoed and sunk by HM Submarine TRUANT
CL KONIGSBERG - bombed and sunk by
10 DDs sunk
With thoseets available, I think the Germans mess up
Dunkirk pretty hard.
> At this point, would Chamberlain make peace, find his nerve
> or would he be ousted in favor of Churchill now?
Hmm. If there is no Dunkirk "miracle", Chamberlain
may go, but it's not clear that Churchill would replace
him. The peace party would be stronger. Butume
it is Churchill. He's not going to make peace.
Then what happens to Norway, though? Germany
doesn't need to worry about the iron ore route, and
while Norwegian ports would be useful, French ports
are much better. Does Hitler back off Norway
permanently?
Britain isn't going to try anything there. Britain would
still like to get the use of the Faeroes, Iceland, and
Greenland, but Denmark is neutral...
> If he makes peace, could this remove the distractions of North Africa/
> Norway/Greece when Hitler decides to go wake the Russian bear in a one-
> front war? Would Britain & France step in when Germany was about to
> be overrun?
The one-front war is another whole issue. OT1H, Germany
does not have distractions in Africa and elsewhere, is not
under blockade or air attack. OTOH, Stalin is not going to
be certain that Hitler is too busy to attack the USSR. So
no opening sucker punch. OYAH, no one is going to give
the USSR any material aid. OTL a huge part of the Soviet
war effort came from Lend-Lease.
Some other consequences: if the war in Europe is over
as of July 1940, does FDR run for a third term? It's been
suggested that one major reason he ran again was his
belief that his abilities were required by the ongoing world
crisis. German victory isn't exactly reassuring, but peace
does turn down the heat. |
