"fasquardon" wrote:
>After a hiatus of about a year (which was mostly due to having to work
>hell-for-leather to get a degree), I've finally returned to shwi... I
>hope everyone is still well.
>
>ObWI: what are the long-term economic consiquences of the western
>powers (i.e. Britain, France and possibly Italy, depending on exact
>PoD) winning a short victorious war against Nazi Germany in the late
>30s?
It doesn't even have to be a war.
If Chamberlain had stood up to Hitler at Munich, the
anti-Hitler faction in the Heer was ready to act.
Hitler would have to order an attack on Czechoslovakia,
or accept complete humiliation. It was assumed he'd
fight.
In which case, hardly anybody in the Heer thought
Germany had a chance.
Go from there...
No WW II.
The US remains isolated. Mussolini stays in power
in Italy.
Germany falls to a conservative/military oligarchy.
Hitler and the chief Nazis buy it, the Party is
semi-disbanded.
Japan continues its war in China, but dares not
attack Indochina or elsewhere. There may still
be an incident on the Manchurian border, but
only an incident.
FDR retires in 1940. Succeeded by a Democrat,
since Willkie the novice candidate would probably
self-destruct as in OTL, and a different Democrat
would not have the third-term millstone on his neck.
Stalin remains inactive for a while at least. The
fall of Hitler removes a threat - sort of. The
new German regime would seem just as hostile, and
the divisions among the 'imperialists' have been
reduced. He may try something in the 1940s. Perhaps
Romania, perhaps the Baltic, perhaps Manchuria.
The world economy gradually picks up. US unemployment
dropped from 19% in 1938 to 14.6% in 1940 and 9.9%
in 1941. One cannot help feeling that for all the
talk of a wartime 'jump-start' to the economy, the
destruction and expense of the war was a net burden.
However, without the war breaking up all the old
institutions and patterns, I don't think we see the
OTL economic order with the Bretton Woods financial
system and broad support for free trade.
--
| He had a shorter, more scraggly, and even less |
| flattering beard than Yassir Arafat, and Escalante |
| never conceived that such a thing was possible. |
| -- William Goldman, _Heat_ | |
