In OTL, universal male sufferage for men over 25 did not
exist in Japan until 1925. At first the only men entitled to vote were
those who paid a direct tax of 15 yen a year who were 25 years or
older. Thus in the first election for the Imperial Diet only 450,365
men could vote.
WI the Meiji Oligarchs decide to institute universal
sufferage for all Japanese male subjects aged 25 and older for the
start. In OTL, they limited sufferage because they wanted the Lower
House of the Diet to be as conservative as possible. Lets say in this
ATL they decide that the there are enough conservative institutions to
counteract even the most radical Lower House. Also Imperial Germany,
the main model for the Meiji government, has universal male sufferage
and is not exactly a democratic society.
In the OTL, the first election for the Local Diet was
dominated bythe Jiyuto and Kaishinto parties. The elected
representatives included 191 commoners and 109 former samurai. 125 were
landlords and 33 were businessmen of various sorts. Two-thirds were
under age 43. Most of them could be described as local notobles. They
disliked arbitrary taxation, centralization, and dominance of Meiji
politics by Samurai from the former domains of Satsuma and Choshu. What
they wanted most of all was for the Prime Minister and Cabinet to be
responsible to the House of Representatives and was prepared to use its
power over the Budget to get what it wanted.
In an ATL with universal male sufferage, I imagine that the
first election would have results similar to OTL's first Japanese
election because the working classes would not have time to organize a
part for themselves yet. Landlords and businessmen would do their best
to get their tennants and employees to not vote for any sort of
populist candidate as well. Although there will be at least a few men
from the working classes, representing tennant farmers and Japan's
growing factory worker population as well. The goals of this ATL's
representatives would be the same, no arbitrary taxation, political
decentralization and a responsible Prime Minister and Cabinet. They
might even demand that Prefectural Governors be elected rather than
appointed and that the Army and Navy be put under civillian control.
Eventually, sooner than latter, the Japanese working classes
are going to organize a party of their own, one probably modeled on the
British IDP or the German SDP. Land reform and improved working
conditions are going to be the big issues with whatever Japanese
working class party forms. Its also the most likely party that would
advocate sufferage for Japanese women and for increased women's rights
in general.
Any other opinions? Long term effects?
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